She Haifeng, vice president of Longji Group: do big size has value dispute, reduce cost still depends on battery efficiency to improve

2022-05-06 0 By

The photovoltaic industry has been debating size or technology.Recently, Longie And Trina solar issued white papers on 182mm and 210mm pv modules, which came to opposite conclusions.At that time, 182 components and 210 components who has the advantage of becoming a hot topic in the industry.”All the test data is a series of things, and we’re just sending out some of them.”March 30, Longji group vice president, global marketing center president she Haifeng accepted times weekly reporter interview, so the response.She Haifeng is responsible for longji components, power plants and other related businesses, he is full of confidence in 182 components.”The 182 is now a mainstream size, and I feel the direction has been set.””In the future, we will continue to release more authoritative and comprehensive data in response to your questions,” she said.He also sees 210 as a complementary size, albeit in a relatively narrow range of applications, that will remain in the market for the long term.”If it is a mainstream first-line manufacturer, in order to meet the larger market demand, it will have to make some 182. However, the original 182 company will stick to 182 rather than 210, which is also the objective market situation that you can see.”He said.According to PVinfolink statistics, in 2021, 48.5GW of 182 components will be shipped, while 23.5GW of 210 components will be shipped.182 size shipments are expected to continue to expand this year.”Component business or accounting for an increasing proportion of” April 1 after the market, Sente Shares (603098.SH) announced that it intends to acquire xi ‘an Longji Green Energy Construction Technology Co., LTD., held by Longji Green Energy Photovoltaic Engineering Co., LTD. 100% equity.After the completion of the acquisition, the new building photovoltaic integration (BIPV) projects undertaken by Lonji and Cente in the field of metal envelope will be undertaken, implemented and delivered by Cente, making each other the sole partner in this field.BIPV is a branch of distributed photovoltaic.Some investors have speculated that this means that Longi shares will no longer participate in BIPV business.In fact, distributed pv includes but is not limited to BIPV.At present, Longi Shares still retain BIPV research and development, manufacturing and business support.With the expertise of Cente In business construction, Longi Can give full play to its r&d advantages and complement each other to further expand the BIPV market.She Haifeng is very optimistic about the 2022 installation bidding, “The Chinese market is similar to the expected situation, the progress of large projects is a little slow due to price factors, but from the first quarter, including household and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic business growth is very fast, compared with last year, there are significant changes.”According to times Weekly, the industry expects the total installed capacity of global pv in 2022 to be about 200GW~220GW, with a year-on-year growth of about 30%.Among them, China, India and Vietnam are regarded as the major incremental markets in the Asia-Pacific region;With strong demand in Europe, Italy, Portugal and other regions are expected to be the high-growth markets for the European market in 2022.Some analysts predict that in the segmented market, the national household photovoltaic installation volume is expected to reach 50GW in 2022.”The distributed pv market is not price sensitive, but the large centralized power plants are price sensitive, so some projects are delayed because of the profitability.”She haifeng said the current price of components is about 1.9 yuan per watt.The modules are in the middle of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the higher prices come from the transmission of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers.Since January 5 this year, the silicon material price bottomed out to 231.8 yuan /KG, there have been eleven consecutive rises, up about 6.989%.According to EnergyTrend data, as of March 30, the overall single crystal material quoted at 248 yuan /KG, some material enterprises are optimistic about April material price, slightly reluctant to sell phenomenon.Silicon prices are expected to rise eleven in a row, longji shares of silicon wafer prices have also been raised.On March 25, Longi stock’s official website adjusted the quotation of monocrystalline silicon, the price of 158.75mm and 166mm monocrystalline silicon rose 0.1 yuan to 5.35 yuan and 5.55 yuan per piece respectively, or 1.8%~1.9%;The price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon chip remains at 6.7 yuan per piece.The spurt of demand growth in the global photovoltaic market has led to a significant increase in the demand for silicon materials, which is a large chemical industry with a long expansion cycle.Therefore, after the formation of short-term supply and demand contradiction, silicon material price was substantially higher.”Silicon production has expanded significantly since 2020.”We’ve done some internal calculations and we’re seeing capacity release at the same pace as demand, or even faster.””Over the course of a few quarters, the silicon price will gradually come down, so the component price will come down accordingly,” he said.As can be seen from the financial statements of Longji shares, the proportion of self-use of silicon chips is becoming higher and higher, and the focus of business seems to be more on the component business.”Longie started with silicon wafers in the early stage and promoted the application of monocrystalline silicon wafers in the industry.He made a great contribution to the industry at that time.SheHaiFeng said, from the Angle of technology today, silicon technology iteration has little scope, should the core technology breakthrough in battery technology, and carrying the ultimate carrier of battery technology is the component, so from the perspective of industry long-term value to consider, the company’s business will shift from charging battery components as the core to the surrounding the terminal customer needs and value creation to expand business.”From a value maximization perspective, it’s true that the component business is likely to become a bigger and bigger part of the business.”He said.”We did not bet on a single direction.” Since 2022, Lonji has spent 63.7 billion yuan to expand production.On March 7, Longji Announced to increase the silicon wafer production capacity and change the investment scale of qujing (Phase II) monocrystal silicon wafer project from annual output of 20GW to 30GW.On March 14, Longji Disclosed the “investment cooperation Agreement” signed on March 12 with the people’s government of Ordos City and the people’s Government of Ejin Horo Banner.The agreement shows that the company is expected to invest 7.6 billion yuan in the 20GW monocrystal silicon rod and chip project, 10.3 billion yuan in the 30GW high-efficiency monocrystal battery project and 1.6 billion yuan in the 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project.The production time of the above projects shall not exceed 6 months, and the production time shall not exceed 24 months.The total investment of the project is about 19.5 billion yuan.On March 21, Longji Disclosed the purchase contract and agreed to purchase 203,600 tons of polysilicon materials from Tongwei. The specific order price will be discussed monthly. The total contract amount is about 44.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 107.42% of the company’s annual audit operating cost in 2020.The expansion of longji shares is based on changes in the market environment.Starting from 2020, the global market has basically reached a consensus on energy transition, and many major economies have clear energy transition roadmap in terms of policies and legislation.This means that the overall installed pv demand has at least 10 years of rapid growth, and technical factors are the key factor driving the expansion of Longi shares.”Longie’s strategy in terms of production capacity has always been ‘no lead, no expansion’. Recently, we have seen that we have expanded production plans in many places, which shows that we have a clear view of the direction of new technology.”She Haifeng said that in battery technology, Longji shares adhering to the strategy of capacity construction, production expansion is the next generation of technology.During the week when She Haifeng was interviewed, Longji’s battery technology broke the world record twice in a row — the conversion efficiency of P-type HJT battery reached 25.47% and that of non-indium HJT battery reached 25.40%.In the past year, Lonji has broken the world record of battery conversion efficiency for 7 times in different technical routes, and basically achieved the overall leadership in various new high-efficiency battery technology directions such as N-type TOPCon, P-type TOPCon, N-type HJT and P-type HJT.”In the past two years, Longi has achieved battery efficiency world records in different technology routes, which shows that Longi is open to exploring new battery technology directions and we are not betting on any one direction alone.”She Haifeng explains longji’s development strategy in battery technology.In his opinion, technology selection is phased, and when a technology may become the most competitive technology in the industry within a period of time from comprehensive consideration of industrialization ability, efficiency, reliability and cost, Lonji Can promote the mass production of the technology.She Haifeng revealed that Longji will release some new technologies and products this year, and some new products will be mass-produced in the fourth quarter of 2022.But before that, the overall efficiency and cost per kilowatt hour should be considered first.”Size is not technology direction” is a constant topic around the PHOTOVOLTAIC industry. It is often the choice of module size and battery technology, both of which have an impact on conversion efficiency.”There used to be a saying in the industry that for every 1% increase in efficiency, the overall cost per kilowatt hour would fall by 9% to 10%.The pv industry goes back to first principles, where it’s all about efficiency.”‘In the past two to three years, the industry has been developing large sizes, and there is actually a value dispute,’ she said.Size is just a physical change, and there will be no new development direction after it has evolved to a certain extent.She haifeng cited mobile phones as an example. “In the early days, mobile phones were very small, and then they got bigger and bigger. Now they have returned to a relatively uniform size, so size is not a technical direction.”She Haifeng does not deny the contribution of large size to the industry.He believes that after the optimal solution of size is found, innovation in this direction will be over, but high efficiency will be the direction of technological innovation in the whole photovoltaic industry in the future, and also the link of competition among photovoltaic enterprises.The photovoltaic industry is moving from the era of parity to the era of new power systems.The era of new power systems means that photovoltaics will shift from complementary energy to the basis of large grids, with fossil and other energy sources becoming complementary.According to She haifeng, the photovoltaic industry can be divided into four stages: the first stage of demonstration subsidies 10 years ago;The second phase of the grid as a complementary energy source;The third stage in which the cost of pv will be in parity with that of fossil energy and the cost of KWH will be further reduced;The establishment of new power system and the realization of carbon neutral carbon peak phase 4.”We’re in phase four.”She Haifeng said, “Continuous technological innovation is the guarantee of long-term sustainable profits, especially Chinese photovoltaic companies have stood in the no man’s land of technological breakthroughs, we hold world records in many technological routes.Going forward, we have a clear plan to continue to make breakthroughs every year.””Right now, we don’t see a ceiling on technology.””He added.